Over 100,000 displaced as Guangdong goes underwater
Heavy rains lashed southern China’s Guangdong Province in April, flooding residential areas, agricultural land, waterways and roads. Four people are reported to have died and 10 were reported missing due to the floods, with more fatalities caused after a highway collapsed in a later event. Over 100,000 people were evacuated across the province, which is prone to summer floods (Guardian, 2024). Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong, received 609mm cumulative rainfall in April – the highest monthly volume in 65 years (Al Jazeera, 2024). With floods damaging several properties, authorities have estimated 140.6 million Yuan (USD $19.4 million) in economic losses (BBC, 2024).
Event Overview
The Pearl River basin, known as China’s manufacturing hub, started experiencing torrential rainfall on 16 April 2024, forcing school closures and hundreds of flight cancellations across the region (CNN, 2024). Central government departments dispatched essential relief supplies to the rain-stricken Guangdong Province as authorities rescued tens of thousands of people. Railway services were also disrupted in the area with more than 300 cancelled trains (Global Times, 2024).
The places worst hit by flooding include Guangzhou (the capital of Guangdong), Shaoguan and Heyuan (BBC, 2024). Approximately 1.16 million households suffered power cuts (BBC, 2024). Floods affected 1,500 hectares of crops, including potato and paddy fields, resulting in financial damages of more than 41 million Yuan (USD $5.66 million) (Guardian, 2024). Following several days of intense rain, part of a highway in Guangdong Province collapsed on 1 May, killing at least 19 people (Independent, 2024).
Figure 1: Satellite-observed rainfall for Guangdong and the surrounding south-eastern China provinces between 16 and 24 April 2024. Rainfall data source: NASA GPM 3-hour rainfall accumulation (2024). Animation produced by JBA Risk Management (2024).
Why did flooding occur
The rainy season in China tends to occur between May and September (Met Office, 2024), yet this event occurred earlier than this. The convective weather in southern China was a result of a subtropical high, leading to warmer temperatures that were able to bring in moisture from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, resulting in heavy precipitation (Reuters, 2024).
Historical flood events
South-east China experiences significant annual rainfall variation, with a tendency for heavy rainfall during the flooding season from April to September. The monsoons of East Asia and India bring substantial moisture to the region, particularly affecting coastal areas like those in Guangdong Province.
It appears that the frequency and intensity of flooding in this region are escalating due to climate change, with south-eastern China witnessing more frequent and severe flooding events over the past decade. Additionally, climate predictions indicate that areas most adversely affected by flooding under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario will all be located in south-eastern China (Xu et al., 2014).
Most of the flood events described in the table below are suggested to have been exacerbated by human activity whether it is the rapid urbanisation resulting in a large increase of impermeable surfaces over the last four decades (Rubinatio et al., 2019) or caused by poorly working flood prevention infrastructure.
The table below describes the meteorological observations and impacts from recent flood events that have affected the provinces of south-east China.
JBA China Flood Map and loss model
It’s vital that organisations act now in response to flood risk. JBA offers flood mapping and probabilistic flood modelling worldwide, including for China, which provides flood risk insights at any location globally. This can help re/insurers, financial organisations, and the International Development sector to better understand and manage flood risk.
JBA’s China Flood Map saw a major update in 2022, with a bare-earth Digital Terrain Model replacing the Digital Surface Model, improvements made in the classification of river and surface water flood types, and updates in land use data and defended area data giving an improved view of flood hazard in China.
This report is accompanied by a flood footprint for the event - detailing extents and depths of the flooding in areas affected. Download it via our Client Portal or request a copy by emailing eventresponse@jbarisk.com.
References
Al Jazeera, 2024. China evacuates over 100,000 as heavy rain continues to lash south. [Online]. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/23/deadly-record-rainfall-evacuates-110000-in-chinas-guangdong [Accessed 30 April 2024]
BBC, 2024. Tens of thousands evacuated from massive China floods. [Online]. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp0gd5ezj9lo [Accessed 30 April 2024]
Chen, X., Dong, J., Huang, L., Chen, L., Li, Z., You, N., Singha, M. and Tao, F., 2023. Characterizing the 2020 summer floods in South China and effects on croplands. iScience, [Online]. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223011732 [Accessed 29 April 2024]
China Daily, 2023. Typhoon Haikui causes significant damage in Fujian, China Daily. [Online]. Available at: https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/07/WS64f95d3ea310d2dce4bb47a3.html [Accessed 1 May 2024]
CNN, 2024. Massive floods threaten tens of millions as intense rains batter southern China. [Online]. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/22/china/china-guangdong-floods-intl-hnk/ [Accessed 30 April 2024]
Global Times, 2024. Massive floods threaten tens of millions as intense rains batter southern China. [Online]. Available at: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311055.shtml?id=11 [Accessed 30 April 2024]
Guardian, 2024. China floods: four killed in Guangdong sparking concerns over extreme weather defences. [Online]. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/china-floods-death-toll-guangdong-province-pearl-river-delta [Accessed 30 April 2024]
Independent, 2024. Highway collapse in China's southern Guangdong province leaves at least 19 dead. [Online]. Available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/china-ap-beijing-guangdong-cctv-b2537676.html [Accessed 1 May 2024]
Li, Y., Ye, S., Wu, Q., Wu, Y. & Qian, S., 2023. Analysis and countermeasures of the “7.20” flood in Zhengzhou., Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering, Volume 22, Issue 6. [Online]. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13467581.2023.2208195 [Accessed 29 April 2024]
Met Office, 2024. China Weather. [Online]. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/travel/holiday-weather/asia/china/china-weather [Accessed 1 May 2024]
PreventionWeb, 2023. Climate change: only 6% of flood-related losses in southern China last year were underwritten. [Online]. Available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/climate-change-only-6-cent-flood-related-losses-southern-china-last-year-were-underwritten [Accessed 29 April 2024]
Reuters, 2023. Remnants of Typhoon Haikui cause floods in southeastern China. [Online]. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/remnants-typhoon-haikui-cause-floods-southeastern-china-2023-09-06/ [Accessed 29 April 2024].
Reuters, 2024. Floods swamp southern China, spark extreme weather fears. [Online]. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/rescuers-race-reach-those-trapped-by-floods-chinas-guangdong-2024-04-22/ [Accessed 30 April 2024]
Rubinato, M., Nichols, A., Peng, Y., Zhang, J.-m., Lashford, C., Cai, Y.-p., Lin, P.-z. and Tait, S., 2019. Urban and river flooding: Comparison of flood risk management approaches in the UK and China and an assessment of future knowledge needs. Water Science and Engineering, Volume 12, Issue 4. [Online]. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674237019301255 [Accessed 29 April 2024]
Xu, Y., Zhang, B., Zhou, B.-T., Dong, S.-Y., Yu, L. & Li, R.-K., 2014. Projected flood risks in China based on CMIP5. Advances in Climate Change Research. [Volume 5, Issue 2], [Pages 57-65]. [Online]. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927814500111?via%3Dihub [Accessed 29 April 2024]
Zhou, Z.-Q., Xie, S.-P., and Zhang, R., 2021. Historic Yangtze flooding of 2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(12), e2022255118. [Online]. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2022255118 [Accessed 29 April 2024]
